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Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets

机译:羊群互动作为预防极端事件的机会   金融市场

摘要

A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight couplingbetween their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind ofbehavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. socialcooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or"crashes"). Abundance of the empirical data as well as general insights intothe trading behavior enables the creation of simple agent-based modelsreproducing sophisticated statistical features of the financial markets. Inthis contribution we consider a possibility to prevent self-organized extremeevents in artificial financial market setup built upon a simple agent-basedherding model. We show that introduction of agents with predefinedfundamentalist trading behavior helps to significantly reduce the probabilityof the extreme price fluctuations events. We also test random trading controlstrategy, which was previously found to be promising, and find that its impacton the market is rather ambiguous. Though some of the results indicate that itmight actually stabilize financial fluctuations.
机译:复杂系统的特征通常是其组成部分之间的紧密耦合。在复杂的社会经济系统中,这种行为会导致自我组织,这既可能是合乎需要的(例如,社会合作),也可能是不合需要的(例如,大规模恐慌,财务“泡沫”或“崩溃”)。丰富的经验数据以及对交易行为的一般洞察力可以创建基于代理的简单模型,该模型可再现金融市场的复杂统计特征。在此贡献中,我们认为有可能防止基于简单的基于代理的牧群模型建立的人工金融市场设置中的自组织极端事件。我们表明,引入具有预定义资金五角星交易行为的代理商有助于显着降低极端价格波动事件的可能性。我们还测试了以前被认为是有希望的随机交易控制策略,并发现其对市场的影响尚不明确。尽管一些结果表明它实际上可以稳定金融波动。

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